Modélisation d'une épidémie

Modeling an epidemic spreading

What are the impacts of the decisions made by the government to stop the epidemic?

Presentation

In my TIPE project of my 2nd year of preparatory class, I chose to modele an epidemic spreading.

Here is the final work !

Compartment model

To carry out this project, the project was based on the compartment model in which I study the size of several populations according to time.

Parameters

I added many parameters in this simulation. The lockdown, the asymptotic cases, hospital saturation and survival chance in intensive care unit are all taken into account.

Results analysis

Mask usage and lockdown impact

Mask usage

I carried out two simulations, one with a 40% transmission rate and another at 80% symbolizing the mask usage and the respect of barrier gestures.

Lockdown

I ran 10 simulations where I confined the population from 0% to 90% to see how the number of infected people evolve over time

Conclusion

Mask usage and lockdown have both an impact on the epidemic spreading. On the one hand, wearing a mask and respecting the barrier measures symbolized by the transmission rate has a reducing impact on the epidemic spreading, but not a significant one. On the other hand, a lockdown of more than 50% of the population seems to be very effective.

However, these results should be taken with caution because the modeling was done only on a population of 2000 people.